A mild hurricane season for 2026?

The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November 30, 2026. In recent years, we have been warned of above-average hurricane activity in the Atlantic due to increased global ocean temperatures. This year's forecast is different. Meteorologists are predicting a mild Atlantic hurricane season with below- to normal activity.

Last year, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season produced 13 named storms — five hurricanes, including four major hurricanes, three of which were category five storms. The season ended up being above average. 

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) El Niño Forecast 2026 puts the probability of El Niño emerging between May and July at over 80%.

Many experts worldwide are also forecasting that this episode may be the strongest in decades. 

An El Niño event typically suppresses hurricane development in the Atlantic due to increased vertical wind shear. A hurricane needs vertical alignment for storm intensification, but strong shear disrupts this process by tilting the vertex of a developing storm. 

The weather phenomenon called El Niño was named by a Peruvian fisherman, who used the term "El Niño de Navidad” — The Christmas Child. This fisherman experienced a warm ocean current that appeared around Christmas, reducing the amount of fish he harvested. El Niño occurs every 2-7 years, with little regularity. El Niño episodes can last for approximately 18 months. 

Prior to an El Niño episode, scientists begin to notice an increase in ocean water temperature. Because of the lack of wind, warm water starts to pile up in the eastern equatorial Pacific. This is a sign that an El Niño pattern is forming off the coast of South America. 

Typically, wind blows westward in the spring and summer around the area of the Galápagos Islands, pushing the warm water away off the surface of the ocean. Removing warm surface water allows for cold, nutrient-rich waters to come to the surface in a process called upwelling. This is normal and highly beneficial, fueling the ocean ecosystems from plankton to the largest fish in the sea. During El Niño years, the nutrient-rich, cold water is in short supply. 

When El Niño events occur, they create massive shifts in both atmospheric circulation and ocean temperatures worldwide, leading to extreme weather. For example, because of a stronger lower jet stream, Southern California can experience increased storms, rain, flooding, and most predictably, large swells and coastal erosion. Heavy rain and flooding can occur in Peru, Ecuador, East Africa, and Central Asia. In contrast to Australia, Southeast Asia, Southern Africa, Southern Mexico, and Central America all experiencing severe droughts and wildfires. And India receiving reduced monsoonal rains, which hinders crop production. 

An increase in global average temperatures can cause much discomfort worldwide during an El Niño event. The Pacific tends to have a more active tropical cyclone season. But scientists also express that the consequences of an El Niño are very unpredictable; each El Niño season plays out in its own unique way.

Other than a reduced hurricane season, what does El Niño mean for Florida and the Southeast in general? As an El Niño event continues into the winter months we can expect above-average rainfall and cooler temperatures. Local severe weather events can occur during El Niño years, including increased thunderstorms and more frequent tornadoes. 

The El Niño events in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 all caused increased rain with extensive flooding across the Southeast United States. During El Niño years, when the jet stream tends to dip lower and become more intense, the Southern states tend to get wetter. Scientist predictions are just that, but a decreased hurricane season for us Southerners would be a welcome relief!